There are still significant security concerns for the United States in West Africa, and as a potentially strong ally there is a definite interest in seeing stability returned to the Ivory Coast. Having a solid partner in the region that is able to both lead by example and serve as a center for bringing greater stability to nearby oil-rich nations is a definite concern for the United States, and ongoing unrest in the Ivory Coast will only fuel increased violence and instability in countries with more direct relationships with the United States.
There are certain obvious figures and sectors that the intelligence community should focus on in their assessment of the Ivory Coast in both its short- and long-term prospects. Certain military leaders siding with President Gbagbo will likely be given key positions in whatever government ends up becoming the stabilizing force in the country, but this does not mean that they will necessarily serve the interests of that government or its allies (USDoS 2011). A strong youth dominance in the demographics of the Ivory Coast also suggests that an increasing number of factions with numbers sufficient to require inclusion in any stable government, and intelligence should largely focus on determining the emerging leaders in the upcoming generation and the issues and principles around which these factions will be coalescing (INR Report 2004). This will enable increasingly effective decisions to be made as more and more accurate pictures of the long-term potentials and likelihoods in the Ivory Coast will be developed through this ongoing analysis.
Competing Models
Though the government in the Ivory Coast is currently in a great deal of turmoil -- turmoil that can in many ways be seen as an extension of the coup that achieved power in 1999 -- it has not necessarily failed (CIA 2011). Defining state failure as a fundamental inability for central authorities (i.e. law-making and enforcing) to be carried out, which is an academically accepted definition, the Ivory Coast is still more stable than many other countries in the region (Langford 1999). At the same time, one could argue that laws are not being enforced as along as a man...
Rotberg (2002) sees the Ivory Coast as a weak country in danger of imminent failure, which is defined somewhat more loosely as a combination of the lack of true political rule and an inability to effectively counter insurgencies. These are definite problems currently facing the Ivory Coast, and it is entirely possible that the current unrest -- rather than resulting in a restabilization of the country, as is expected with sufficient international intervention in the country -- will yield to less rigid governmental hierarchies and larger uncertainties (USDoS 2011). As the number of factions grows and power becomes more and more fragmented in the country, the Ivory Coast could quite easily descend into total failure according to this definition of the concept, and many of the countries that Rotberg (2002) points to as being in this dangerous position have already crumbled or are right at the brink.
Conclusion
It is clearly of great importance that the situation in the Ivory Coast be monitored, and intervention is also warranted depending on the immediate outcomes of the current situation. A political standoff or even failure in this country is not of immediate or direct security concern to the United States, but the potential influence of either a failure or a restabilization of the Ivory Coast would have an enormous impact on U.S. interest in the West African region. Regardless of the model used, the true future prospects for this nation remain cloudy.
References
CIA. (2011). Cote d'Ivoire. World Factbook. Accessed 7 February 2011. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iv.html
INR Report. (2004).
Langford, T. (1999). Things Fall Apart: State Failure and the Politics of Intervention. International Studies Review 1(1): 59-79.
Rotberg, R. (2002). Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States: Causes and Indicators.
USDoS. (2011). Background Note: Cote d'Ivoire. U.S. Dept. Of State. Accessed 7 February 2011. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2846.htm
